WAAY 31 Weather Blog – TNValleyWx.com

Good Thursday to you!

We started your morning with some pretty dense fog around the Valley, but that has all eroded and now we’ll look forward to a fantastic afternoon:

Isolated, passing showers will be possible late this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, but I certainly would not expect a washout. Any rainfall will be light and brief.

The clouds that move through this afternoon will move out overnight, but more clouds move in for tomorrow morning. Lows will bottom out in the mid 50s! (Huntsville has not seen lows in the 50s since May 15th, when the morning low was 59°.)

Speaking of cooler weather, expect highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s. We’ll begin the day with a partly to mostly cloudy sky, but we’ll be mostly sunny going into the afternoon.

Memorial Day Weekend:

Aren’t weekends even better when they’re holiday weekends?!

Although we have a great weekend on deck weather-wise, Saturday morning will begin on a pretty cool note. We’ll wake up in the mid to upper 40s…

I know. I’m not really a fan either…

Fortunately, we’ll rebound to the upper 70s and low 80s for the afternoon, under a sunny sky. (Think of it as a great night to open the windows and switch off the AC!)

Sunday looks nice, as well, although some models do indicate a slight chance for a passing shower or two. We’ll call it partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s.

For Memorial Day itself, models continue to bicker. Let me show you what I mean…

The GFS (just one model we use to bring you an accurate forecast) keeps us dry as a bone on Sunday. The following snapshot is for 1:00 PM Sunday afternoon:

In fact, not only is this model saying, “Nope, no rain!” on Sunday…it keeps us dry until as late as next FRIDAY!

The ECMWF (Euro), however, is marching to the beat of a different drum. Here’s a snapshot from the guidance for 1:00 PM Sunday:

This model keeps most of the rain and thunderstorm activity north of the Tennessee River on Sunday, but brings in more widespread rain for Monday and Tuesday. Both models are in agreement with a rain-free Wednesday and a dry Thursday.

See what I mean about these models bickering? They may come into closer agreement as we go through the weekend, but for now, expect isolated showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. The middle of the week looks excellent. Temperature-wise, we warm back up into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday.

After a brief break from the humidity to round out this work week and start the weekend, models indicate that dew points will rise back into the 60s next week:

I leave you, as always, with your 7-Day Forecast:

Be sure to join Chief Meteorologist Spencer Denton, Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari, and Meteorologist Merry Perry on WAAY-31 First News at 4, 5, and 10. You can also catch Ari on our sister station, Fox 54, at 9 PM. (Our native Tennesse Valley-an and weather producer, Ben Luna, is also on social media: @benlunawx)

Have a wonderful Thursday, and congratulations to all of those students around the Valley rounding out the school year today! GREAT JOB!

- Samantha Smith

Connect With Me:

Facebook: Samantha Smith

Twitter: @SamanthaSmithWX

Email: SSmith@WAAYTV.com

Good morning all!

Weather today will feature a frontal boundary dragging across the TN Valley that will ultimately lead to cooler weekend air. In the meantime we still may see a few scattered showers as the cooler air enters the region later this afternoon and evening however rain chances are on the “slim” side.

What’s big to speak about is the high pressure system that will dominate our weather for the coming days! Look for plenty of Friday and weekend sunshine with a slight cool down taking hold for the first few days. As the high moves east over Atlantic waters, expect a warm up early next week.

Today: Clouds increasing; maybe a scattered shower but rain chances on the lower end.
High: 85° – Low: 55°

Friday: Mainly sunny and cool!
High: 73° – Low: 47°

Saturday: Sunny and a little warmer.
High: 83° – 50°

Have a great Thursday!

-Ben Luna

Good Wednesday to you!

Our big story, weather-wise – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the TN Valley under a “Slight Risk” for severe weather today — mainly in the afternoon:

As of this 8:00 AM-hour update, most folks around the TN Valley are dry. At about 2:00 AM Wednesday, however, some of you in NW AL and adjacent middle TN may have been woken up by loud thunder, gusty winds, and very heavy rain. As a line of showers and storms moved into our western fringe this morning, it completely fizzled out. Here’s what the radar looked like at 2:17 AM:

Now, here’s what it looked like at 5:26 AM:

What you see in the above image east of I-65, developed early in the 4:00 AM hour just west of Huntsville and moved east. Everything to the west meandered east and fell apart.

As of this 8 AM hour update, most of that has completely fizzled out:

Spotty light showers and patchy drizzle will be possible through the rest of the morning, but scattered showers and storms will begin to pop up this afternoon with daytime heating in place:

Here’s a snapshot of our model around the evening commute:

While we’re not looking at a major, widespread severe weather threat like our friends in the Plains have seen over the course of the past few days, some storms today may produce gusty winds and hail. This time of the year in Alabama, the tornado threat is rarely zero. It is, however, low today. Don’t cancel your plans for the afternoon/early evening time frame, but I encourage you to keep an eye to the sky and have your NOAA Weather Radio on. Showers and storms will taper off as the sun sets. Only isolated showers are possible between 10 PM – midnight.

Otherwise, highs today will top out around 83°. Lows around 62°. (Interesting Temperature Tidbit: Yesterday (Tuesday) was our FIRST 90° day of the year at Huntsville International Airport! Muscle Shoals made it to 87°. Most of the highs you’ll find on today’s 7-Day Forecast are well below those numbers…until next week…)

End Of The Week:

We have certainly seen our fair share of rain over the course of 2013 thus far! There’s another shot for it on Thursday afternoon.

I know…I know…

Thursday won’t be a washout but showers and storms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will return to the low 80s. Expect a mix of clouds and sun.

It’ll also be quite breezy through the day with winds from the south at 10 – 15 mph, gusting as high as 25 mph.

Friday will be downright…

…but it will be pretty breezy again. Winds on Friday will be from the north at 5 – 15 mph, but may gust as high as 25 mph.

Expect highs in the upper 70s to around 80°, with significantly lower humidity! Rather than the dew points in the 60s we’ve had to endure this week, models indicate they’ll fall into the 40s and 50s. Expect a much more pleasant feel to the air!

Memorial Day Weekend: Cooler & Less Humid:

This time of the year, a lot of folks plan to spend their weekends outside! I know I certainly do! For now, the weekend looks mainly dry, but much cooler. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Expect highs around 82° on Saturday, under a mainly sunny sky. At the moment, Sunday and Monday both look partly cloudy but the models that we use to bring you an accurate forecast are having a tough time deciding when our next chance for rain will move in. For now, expect only isolated variety showers and storms Sunday and Monday.

I leave you with your 7-Day Forecast:

Have a great Wednesday!

- Samantha Smith

Twitter: @SamanthaSmithWX

Facebook: Samantha Smith

Our friends in the southern and central Plains have certainly dealt with their share of severe weather over the course of the past few days. This system will continue to move east, but will weaken as it does so. While there is a chance for strong to severe storms across the Tennessee Valley through tomorrow, we are NOT forecasting a widespread severe weather outbreak.

As of this late-morning (Tuesday) update, the Storm Prediction Center has included all of north AL and southern TN in their “Slight Risk” area for today. (A “Slight Risk” of severe weather means that there is an elevated risk of strong to severe storms. A “Moderate Risk” takes on a greater sense of urgency.)

While we are certainly on the outskirts of this risk area, I encourage you to remain weather aware for today. The highest threat for severe storms is to our west, but we may see some strong, isolated thunderstorms today, especially across Middle TN and southern Middle TN.

As of just before lunchtime, our friends in Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas are already dealing with strong to severe storms. Here’s a snapshot of the radar as of 11:50 AM:

As I mentioned earlier, Wayne county, Lawrence county, and points off to the east have the higher risk for embedded strong to severe storms today. Most of N AL, especially south of the TN River will stay dry.

Locally, heat and humidity have been the big stories for today. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, and with dew points in the 70s across many areas, expect to sweat very quickly if you’ll be out and about. There is certainly a SOUPY feel to air!

For Wednesday, we’re forecasting widely scattered showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. As of this latest update, there is a “Slight Risk” for severe weather across southern Middle TN on Wednesday:

I encourage you to remain weather aware going into Wednesday but do not expect the widespread severe event our friends in the Plains have had to deal with.

Showers and storms will move out by Wednesday evening, as the front moves through the Valley, but with the front still in the vicinity on Thursday, expect a slight chance for showers and storms on Thursday afternoon (mainly south of the TN River and east of I-65).

We’ll see a dry (and less humid) weekend.

Here’s a look at your 7-Day Forecast:

A devastating tornado struck parts of Moore and Oklahoma City, OK this afternoon. Numerous injuries have been reported from a countless number of damage structures. I wanted to share with you a few pictures from Huntsville’s Baron Services of the radar data of this powerful storm.

Note the image below features an amazing look at the storm’s “debris ball” as it enters into the Moore area. The debris ball is formed when the tornado encounters structures and pulls materials into the atmosphere.

These images were taken with OMNI’s 3D Volume Imaging System. As a NEXRAD radar scans on multiple levels, OMNI processes a three dimensional model, in real time, of the cell.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those who’ve been affected by the storms in our Nation’s heartland this afternoon.

-Ben Luna

Just after 2 p.m. a rotating thunderstorm gained a tornado warning as it tracked through Athens and Northeast Limestone County. While the storm was responsible for several damage reports from Athens to Ardmore, NWS officials will soon begin the process of determining if a suspected tornado touched down and, if so, how powerful were the winds when the damage occurred.

We’ll add more pictures to this blog post as we receive them. To see your pictures from today’s storm on the air and web, e-mail us at: weather@waaytv.com

-Ben Luna

A consistent southwesterly flow across much of the deep south has placed dew points (amount of moisture in the air) in the upper 50′s and low 60′s across the Valley making it feel a bit sticky outside.

A series of shortwaves (shortwave trough- an imbedded kink in the trough/ridge pattern sometimes found ahead of longwaves and/or approaching upper level fronts) around the Valley is what was aiding in much of the cloud cover from earlier this morning.

Example of a shortwave if you are still confused is below. Circled is the shortwave just ahead of the longwave behind it.  This is an old model forecast from OSU Dept. of Meteorology.

We can expect to see a brief break in cloud cover by early afternoon; however, another small shortwave is progged to sweep by our viewing area later today likely triggering a few showers this afternoon but any threat of T-storms remain low as CAPE values ( Instability) for later today look to be on the low end. Tonight we can look for another mild one as temps will only fall back into the low 60′s with a few hit or miss showers this evening.

Weekend Outlook:

Our next upper level disturbance (frontal boundary) will arrive by late Fri night into the first part of Saturday morning bringing an increased chance of rain late Fri night lingering into the overnight hours. A few T-storms likely but no severe wx expected. Most of the rain should be out of here by Saturday;however, with the front stalling just to our NE Sat afternoon, a few showers and possibly a brief T-storm cannot be ruled out Sat afternoon. Sunday looks to be a better day in the weather department with temps expected in the upper 80′s under a Partly Sunny and calmer sky! Enjoy the weekend!

Merry Perry