WAAY 31 Weather Blog – TNValleyWx.com

A complex weather pattern has set up across the Upper Plains today. Another small upper low located near St. Louis, MO is producing blow off from this storm system and drifting downstream into the lower southeastern states. Looking at Radar Satellite together you can see the area we are referring to by locating the heavier showers moving through NW Mississippi. This should hold together over the next few hours given the current dynamics in place over the Valley. This does indicate a good chance of a few afternoon showers for NW Alabama as well as adjacent Southern Middle TN. 

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND:

The next Cool Front set to sweep through our area Fri morning will trigger a few early morning showers for NW Alabama but as this line moves through the area from West to East it will slowly fizzle out which means much of Central and East Alabama is unlikely to see any rainfall for most of the day on Friday. A few hit or miss showers are still possible but probability remains lower for Central and East Alabama. Here is a look at the early morning model run for NW Alabama as front is knocking on the doorstep.

The above photo, again, shows the heavy line of showers with a few embedded t-storms moving through extreme NW Alabama around 7am on Friday. 

The Cool Front finally makes it’s debut around the Valley by Fri evening, approximately 7p.m..

WILL YOU NEED A RAINCOAT FOR FRI NIGHT PLANS?

I will say you should have the umbrella with you Fri night if you have plans to be out and about but as far as the Galoshes and Coat….well…..maybe that would be over doing it just a tad. I think a good hefty umbrella will suffice just fine in the event you run into a few spotty showers or sprinkles. 

 By Saturday morning, Low pressure disturbance (Cool Front) will sink just to our south. What does this mean? This means Cloud cover will hang with us most of Saturday predominately the first part of Saturday; however,as far as rain is concerned, we will only go with a 20%chance as most areas will be on the dry side under a Mostly Cloudy sky. See below. 

Saturday evening and overnight should sit under a Partly Cloudy sky with temps only falling into the low 60′s so remaining fairly mild and comfortable shall you be outdoors some of the evening hours. 

MOTHER’S DAY: Looking much better by Sunday for an outing with Mom. Partly to Mostly Sunny skies will be in place but as of now, another brief, dry (no rain) shortwave looks to move through by late afternoon which will transition our skies around the Valley over to mostly cloudy by the late afternoon hours. Enjoy the weekend and Happy Mother’s Day to the most important woman in all our lives! Make it a great day! 

Merry Perry

Walkin’ on sunshine…wooah! Walkin’ on sunshine…wooah! And don’t it feel good!

Isn’t it nice to see some beautiful weather around the Valley? Here in the WAAY-31 Storm Center we are loving it. (Too bad there’s no window in here!)

Expect a mostly to partly sunny sky for the rest of your Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 70s. Isolated showers and storms are possible today as a disturbance wraps around the system that brought us several inches of rain over the weekend. Don’t expect a washout by any means. Here’s what our in-house forecast model looks like for the evening commute:

As the sun sets, we lose daytime heating and instability. Expect a dry night with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s. Remember, that low happens early tomorrow morning. Check out your hour-by-hour for tonight:

For Thursday expect much of the same. We’re forecasting a 10% shot for showers tomorrow afternoon and highs around 82°!

Rain Moves In To Cap Off The Work Week:

Our next chance for widespread rain arrives on Friday as a cold front moves into the Tennessee Valley. Isolated showers will be possible for the morning commute, but showers and storms will arrive from our west by mid to late morning. We are not forecasting severe weather with this system, but MORE RAIN in already elevated creeks and streams may lead to more flooding concerns. If you live in a low-lying area, be sure you are monitoring the local forecast over the coming days. We’ll be updating local Flood Warnings on the blog.

The in-house model that I’ve been showing you in this entry takes the rain COMPLETELY OUT of our forecast region by Friday night. This model also has us dry through the weekend.

However, looking at the other forecast models, I’m skeptical of that scenario for the weekend. Let’s compare those:

1 PM Saturday (GFS Model):1 PM Saturday (ECMWF Model):

Both models above indicate showers lingering Saturday afternoon. That is right in line with our forecast. Rain should move out of the Tennessee Valley late Saturday night into the early morning hours of your Sunday.

Mother’s Day Forecast:

We may be left with a few showers in our south and eastern sections early Sunday morning but by Sunday afternoon, you should be able to venture outdoors (and stay dry!) with Mom. Highs on Sunday will be cooler though! We’ll only top out in the low 70s.

Mayvember Returns:

The month of May should feature highs creeping into the 80s and lows in the upper 50s. Waking up Monday and Tuesday mornings, however, may be a shock to the system for you. Models indicate that we may get down into the upper 30s and low 40s at the beginning of the work week.

We’ll keep an eye on this model trend for you and will keep you updated on the air and online. For your most recent video forecast, click here.

7-Day Forecast:

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

- Samantha Smith

Connect With Me On Social Media:

Twitter: @SamanthaSmithWX

Facebook: Samantha Smith

The infamous Beatles song keeps ringing in my ear with the coming of this much needed Sunny day we are experiencing. We are finally seeing the clouds pull out of the Valley and will continue transitioning over to a Mostly Sunny sky by late this afternoon. Decatur is already looking beautiful with only a few clouds lingering. Temp right around the 70° mark.

Satellite and Radar together shows the most recent storm system that hung around the Valley all weekend currently positioned over the Carolinas and drifting up the Eastern Coast. No rain to talk about at this time;however, the center of this system is still close enough to the Valley to see a few more wrap around light showers this evening for areas East of I-65 and North of the TN River otherwise, tonight we’ll expect a partly to mostly tclear sky with temps falling only to around the 5o° mark. High Pressure will take control once again tomorrow bringing more sunshine a slightly warmer conditions.

Enjoy these next few days of sunshine as our next Cool Front will bring another round of weekend showers and a few T-storms. Here is a look at your next days

-Merry Perry

We woke up to a THICK blanket of fog around the Tennessee Valley this morning. Many spots had to deal with visibility at less than a mile for much of the morning commute. Fog eroded by mid-morning, and this morning’s Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 9:00 AM. If you snapped a picture of fog in your are, feel free to send that to Weather@WAAYTV.com.

A Warm-Up Is A’Comin’:

Highs today will top out around 70­°. (Huntsville has not hit the 70° mark since last FRIDAY, May 3rd, when they made it to 75°!)

May 4th – 54°

May 5th – 60°

May 6th – 58°

That brings May’s average temperature at Huntsville thus far to just 66° (rounded up from 65.7°).

Not to worry though, warm weather lovers! A significant warm-up is coming after today. Granted, it’ll be pretty chilly on Wednesday morning with areas of fog through mid-morning (lows in the upper 40s and low 50s). Highs tomorrow will be back to where they “should be” for this time of the year – 79°.

The warm weather sticks around through the end of the work week. We’re around 80° until Saturday!

More Rain On The WAAY:

Unfortunately, there are more opportunities for rain in the forecast this week. While any rain we see today through Thursday afternoon will be pretty spotty in nature, we’ve got a chance for more widespread rain late Thursday night through Saturday as another cold front (this one a bit less potent) approaches the Tennessee Valley.

This doesn’t bode well for areas rivers, creeks, and streams, which are still experiencing flooding from the rain event on Friday through Monday.

Of course, we’re still several days out from this event, so we’re not putting the cart before the horse just yet, in terms of timing this system. Be sure to check with us for updates through the rest of the work week.

In the meantime, here’s a look at your 7-Day Forecast.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

- Samantha Smith

With nearly 72 hours of continuous rainfall around the Tennessee Valley, there are many reports of flooding. We’ll compile them as they come in.

As a reminder, if you encounter a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND. DO NOT cross it. It only takes 2 ft. of water to carry away most vehicles.

Flooding:

- 1 mi. S Albertville (Marshall co.) – EMA reports flooding at 6:51 AM: South Broad St. from Bobo St. to College St. under one foot of water. Road crews monitoring.

- 4 mi. SSW Woodville (Marshall co.) – EMA reports flooding at 6:51 AM: Butler Mill Rd. Getting barricades ready for flooding from Paint Rock River.

- 5 mi. SW Albertville (Marshall co.) – EMA reports flooding at 6:51 AM: Whiteoak Rd. at Needmore Rd. Bridge underwater. Road closed between Douglas and Albertville.

- 4 mi. SSE Albertville (Marshall co.) – EMA reports flooding at 6:51 AM: Mt. Vernon and Willow St. in Boaz closed.

As of this Wednesday morning update, FLOOD WARNINGS remain in effect for many local rivers. We’ll continue to update them as they come in:

FLOOD WARNING continues for the Paint Rock River near Woodville until Thursday afternoon.

FLOOD WARNING continues for the Tennessee River at Florence until late Friday night.

FLOOD WARNING continues for the Tennessee River at Whitesburg until late Thursday night.

No major changes to the forecast at this time. So far, weather today as cooperated as forecasted. Dry Line is continuing to work it’s way West to East over the Valley. NW Alabama has been relatively dry since mid-morning. Central Alabama and adjacent Southern Middle TN is seeing the last of some light showers for a at least the next several hours. East Alabama will see a few more evening showers later today but otherwise, most areas will see a brief break in rain activity and possibly sky cover.

Trajectory of Upper Level Low still on point with drifting directly over the TN Valley by Sunday morning yielding wrap around showers and enough instability to trigger a few afternoon T-storms (non-severe in nature). All and all, we will be dealing with dismal weather as a result of this storm system at at least until late Tues. The bulk of rain activity from this system should be out of here by late Monday but clearing skies won’t take effect until some time on Tuesday. If you have outdoor plans tomorrow, go ahead and plan on acting on your plan B for the day.

This is a cold core low which means a lot of cold air aloft. As the center of this storm settles into the valley, cold air advection will cause temps to fall back into the upper 30’s tonight and struggle to make it out of the 50’s (some areas out of the 40’s) by tomorrow.

Bundle up tonight and, again, take the rain gear with you for the remainder of the wknd! 

We can expect to see Mr. Sunshine again by late Tues into early Wed. 

-Make it a great day!

Merry Perry